The Impending Population Collapse
When I step out of my semi-urban (semi-rural?) apartment block in India, I see a sea of people today traveling by all possible means to do all sorts of things. The next thing I assume is that it must been like this all along and it will be so forever. Wait a sec, this can’t be true! For a fact, we know that civilization is just 5000 or so years old and earth was still in an ice age 12,000 years ago. This must be my naive mind (supposed to be intelligent with it’s 100 billion neurons) playing tricks on me to keep me in the dark.
We are approx. 8 billion people living here today causing havoc to the natural world. Just in the last 2 centuries alone, the population has increased from 1 to 8 billion like never before in the history of earth. Today, we are worried about climate change, sustainably feeding our population, saving water/air from pollution and many more issues mainly caused by the huge population. In the midst of all this what are the odds of someone thinking about a population decline?
The first life on earth formed 4 billion years ago. From there on, life has evolved and re-evolved from very simple to extraordinarily beautiful forms that we see on earth today. Human is just one of them. New species come to life for reasons that we can’t fathom (Cambrian Explosion is an example), do their thing and die down leaving way for others. After all, earth is not just all about us.
Humans are a very recent species in earth’s timeline. Homo Sapiens have been around here only for 200,000 years. We have a brain that is envy of other animals in the kingdom. Does that make us special? Our action here seems to suggest that earth was in penance for so long for humans to arrive and we could be the ultimate! There is no guarantee though!!
Earth has witnessed a few population declines before. The one that we are in now will be a painful and seminal moment for us. Anyway, the signs have been there from the 1980s if we trust what experts have to say. In Empty Planet, the authors claim that the population decline was set in motion the moment we turned from a rural, agricultural society to an more urban, modern society. The argument goes: More hands are needed to tend a family farm. So, kids are an investment. In an urban setting though, they are more mouths to feed. There are others such as women empowerment, individualism, societal factors.
The first time I heard about the term “population collapse” was two years ago from none other than Elon Musk in one of his interviews. Living in India, navigating the never ending queues and traffic this was a huge surprise. Things started to clear once I started reading a few papers and review the data available. There are countries today in the world that are already in population decline or will be very soon. Most of Europe, Japan, South Korea and many more. Once the trend sets in, it seems to be very challenging to reverse even with government policies that encourage more kids.
Closer home, in Tamil Nadu things look very normal with people everywhere. Just that looks can be deceptive. A fertility rate of 2.1 will keep the population in equilibrium. Tamil nadu’s fertility rates for the past 30 years are here.
| State | 1981 | 1991 | 1999 | 2009 | 2019 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamil Nadu | 3.4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
For the past 25 years or so, we are below replacement level. Our population is still increasing, although at a slower pace because of the demographic momentum gained before 1990.
Looking forward, peak population is expected in 2031 and will start reducing from there on if the current fertility rates don’t change.
| State (population in ‘000) | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamil Nadu | 72147 | 74635 | 76402 | 77546 | 78082 | 78067 |
Number of births, hence the school children keeps going down where as the 60+ group keeps increasing and touches almost 20% in the next 10 years or so. People are expected to live longer (Life expectancy keeps increasing) because of better health care and living conditions overall.
The same scenario will play out in most of the other Indian states. Some notable exceptions are Bihar and UP and they too will catch up with us in a few decades if not now.
If humans are pushing earth to its extremes, a population decline after all must be a good thing. right? Not so fast. It is not just about the numbers, it is about the way people live their life. An average person in a developed nation emits way more carbon than a person in developing nation. A simple contented life, aligned with nature will definitely help.
Population decline is surely upon us. This brings in a set of new opportunities and challenges. For the first time, 1 in 5 people in TN will be over 60 years. We need government policies to accommodate for
- Robust Health care - More elders will need more hospitals and doctors
- Elderly friendly Infrastructure
- Social security such as pension
- Elderly friendly housing
At the same time, the education has to focus on quality rather than quantity as we enter into a phase of less and less school children.
Technology companies and start-up ecosystem can build solutions for elderly care. Some of them can be
- AI powered devices/services for assisting elders to take care of themselves
- Customer assistance focusing on elderly needs.
Overall, this seems to be an interesting period for everyone involved. Anyone who is in ~30s today will live long enough to see all this through. We have examples of other countries such as Japan to learn from and improvise.
Thinking far ahead in earth’s terms, taking inspiration from Tolstoy’s Anna Karenina - “Living Species are all alike; every dying species dies in its own way!”
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